AUD/USD - Still potential to fall?

The AUD has been indecisive over the past week bouncing between the previous high of AUD$0.8263 and the channel low of AUD$0.7880

The question is still where is it heading over the medium term?

Even with the sideways movement over the past week, it has not broken outside of the lower regression channel and we can see from the attached graph that there is downward pressure on the AUD showing up in a drop in the Oscillator, a declining ADX and the MACD well and truly rolling over fromn an over sold position.

Is the Wave 4 target still viable at this stage - well yes but the longer the AUD stays in the channel the weaker the evidence becomes that the AUD will breakout to retest the earlier lows of AUD$0.75.

However even this may be a bit od a stretch as in order to get down around AUD$0.75, the currency needs to break out of the channel and the key support at AUD$0.7840 and then it will encounter resistance around AUD$0.7640 which is the 50 day MA.

If the AUD beaks the lower regression channel and falls below the support of AUD$0.7840, then odd on that we will see the AUD fall to around AUD$0.75 and at this stage an opportunity to lock in a few contracts as the next retracement would look to retest the new high of AUD$0.8600