Saturday, August 1, 2009

It's getting better all the time ?

Its a classic line from the Fab Four :

"... I've got to admit it's getting better, it's getting better all the time .."

But is it - that is the question?

Recently the DOW has been down because of weak GDP numbers being worse than expected, however the data also indicates that inventories have been falling over the months due to lack of production productivity and are now at a point that in order to stay in business, companies will need to ramp up production to replace the delpleted stocks.

If the underlying consumer demand does not pick up to coincide with this increased productivity then it is my guess that once the inventory levels are back up above their minimums, companies will wind production back again. This will mean we could only be watching a medium term bull run at present and that it is due to fade if consumer sentiment and support wain in the mid term.

But,

"... I've got to admit it's getting better, it's getting better all the time ..."



Cheers

No comments: