"... Can't seem to face up to the facts,""I'm tense and nervous, I can't relax,""Can't sleep, the beds on fire,""don't touch me I'm a real live wire ...."excerpt from Psycho Killer, 1977, Talking Heads, by David Byrne
Cheers
Thursday, March 25, 2010
"... take two VIX & call me in the morning ....
Cheers
Monday, March 8, 2010
"...scratching the surface ...".
"... beneath everything ordinary and common place,
lies the extraordinary and unique ...".
Cheers
Friday, March 5, 2010
"... NAB, is this the fun park: are we having fun ?."
Pummeled by the associated risks of the Greek and other sovereign debts defaults possibilities and the presentation of a lackluster profit update compared to CBA & ANZ recently, one could be forgiven for thinking that NAB was down for the count and not one of the preferred pillars in Australian banking.
So has NAB dropped the ball, and what do the market makers think about its performance?
Recently I read a number of broker reviews on NAB, they were jam packed with balance sheets, P&L statements, provisioning estimates, bad debt exposures, and reports I found hard to decipher, much less their relevance as to whether NAB was a buy or sell.
As a lapsed Economist, I believe that price is the ultimate piece of knowledge and reflects all the market knows about a company. In short, the market will go where it wants to go. We just tag along for the ride.
Look at the longer term weekly chart dated 26th February 2010 above. What we see here is that NAB looks to be completing a Wave 4 low and getting ready for a rise back up towards $34.45, which is the 62.% Fibonacci price target. However there are a few issues with this chart, mainly that Wave 4 has violated it's statistical targets, and so the expectation is that the Wave 5 high that is due to follow, will not likely to be a new Wave high, but rather equal to the height of the previous wave 3. This would give a price target of around $32.40.
By comparison, lets drop down a degree, and look at the daily chart to see what insight we can glean from it's price projections. In this chart, dated 26th February, we can see that NAB has recently completed a Wave 5 low, has almost completed both Waves 1 & 2 and may be in the early stages of a Wave 3 rise.
As we know from Elliott Wave theory, Wave 3 is the longest wave, so this early identification offers a great opportunity to make greater than average profits, - but only if the wave count is correct. In this instance the price target is the Fibonacci extension of 1.618, yielding a price of $28.07, which is in the ball park of the conservative price from the weekly chart. Interestingly both the MOB tool target and the 1.618 Fibonacci targets line up on the daily charts as well.
So since we cannot control the markets and it will wander where it wants too, is $28 a place that NAB will wander too over the next month or so?
If so why not tag along for the ride?.
Cheers
So has NAB dropped the ball, and what do the market makers think about its performance?
Recently I read a number of broker reviews on NAB, they were jam packed with balance sheets, P&L statements, provisioning estimates, bad debt exposures, and reports I found hard to decipher, much less their relevance as to whether NAB was a buy or sell.
As a lapsed Economist, I believe that price is the ultimate piece of knowledge and reflects all the market knows about a company. In short, the market will go where it wants to go. We just tag along for the ride.
Look at the longer term weekly chart dated 26th February 2010 above. What we see here is that NAB looks to be completing a Wave 4 low and getting ready for a rise back up towards $34.45, which is the 62.% Fibonacci price target. However there are a few issues with this chart, mainly that Wave 4 has violated it's statistical targets, and so the expectation is that the Wave 5 high that is due to follow, will not likely to be a new Wave high, but rather equal to the height of the previous wave 3. This would give a price target of around $32.40.
By comparison, lets drop down a degree, and look at the daily chart to see what insight we can glean from it's price projections. In this chart, dated 26th February, we can see that NAB has recently completed a Wave 5 low, has almost completed both Waves 1 & 2 and may be in the early stages of a Wave 3 rise.
As we know from Elliott Wave theory, Wave 3 is the longest wave, so this early identification offers a great opportunity to make greater than average profits, - but only if the wave count is correct. In this instance the price target is the Fibonacci extension of 1.618, yielding a price of $28.07, which is in the ball park of the conservative price from the weekly chart. Interestingly both the MOB tool target and the 1.618 Fibonacci targets line up on the daily charts as well.
So since we cannot control the markets and it will wander where it wants too, is $28 a place that NAB will wander too over the next month or so?
If so why not tag along for the ride?.
Cheers
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