Thursday, December 31, 2009

"Santa Claus rally ... but for whom ?"

Right back before Thanksgiving the market had a decent dose of implied volatility and thetas were looking pretty good. Also refer back to the blog entry, "Crushing me to death ...", December 20th 2009.

However as we approached Thanksgiving, which was a four day holiday this year, the market makers began to crush down the IV, so as to artificially or prematurely adjust the theta out of the market to a point where prior to the Thanksgiving long weekend, the thetas values reflected the post holiday values. What this effectively means is that you cannot sell premium prior top the holiday break on say the Friday and expect to get the benefit of free theta without any market risk over the weekend because the markets are shut. This is because the market makers have adjusted the IV and theta values by the close of business on the Friday to reflect the values on market open on Monday.

The same situation has happened again over Christmas and again as we go into the New Year. If you click on the RUT graph on the right to increase it's size, you will see that at the holiday period progressed the IV levels for the RUT continued to fall. Some of this decline was due to the progressive rising prices for the RUT but again, some of the decline was artificially manipulated by the market makers not wanting to give away free Theta over the holiday break while the market was closed..

Cheers

Friday, December 25, 2009

"Scrutiny from below ...."

"..... why is it that when my children are happy and love me, I know everything, and when they are angry and upset with me, I know nothing ? ".

Guido Brunetti,
Commissario of Police, Venice.
Death at La Fenice, 1992.

Cheers.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Crushing me to death ...

Back on 18th October 2009, I discussed why there is no Theta advantage going into a weekend or extended holiday break - this was primarily because the Market Makers adjust the implied volatility to cut the theta back so that it reflects to approximate market price when the market reopens after the break.


Market Makers cannot directly change market prices but they can alter the level of the implied volatility they plug into their option pricing models to reflect how the market would change over the space of the holiday break. By doing this they compensate themselves upfront for the theta decay that should take place over the holiday break.

Yesterday, 19th December, was expiration Friday, and we are now well under way to place our portfolio trades for January 2010, and as good traders we need to look at balancing our portfolio Vegas. So the question is should we be neutral or a little skewed to the upside or downside?

Reviewing the implied volatility and statistical volatility charts for my favourite stocks shows that both IV and SV are essentially flatlining and are in the lower 20% of their yearly IV range. This would suggest that Calendars are the way to go. However if we look at the IV to SV ratio, then almost all of these same stocks are quite over valued suggesting that selling premium via Iron Condors and Butterflies may be a better alternate strategy.

So how to choose between these strategies - what do we know about IV that will help us make the right decision?

In order to keep it simple, we know from the discussion above that Market Makers are dragging down IV to reflect the theta decay and any drop in IV will crush the life out of a Calendar and help the profitability of a Butterfly. So if we choose a Butterfly and IV in fact rises instead of dropping due to some unforeseen news event, how would this effect our trade.


Well although the Butterfly would be damaged from rising IV in the short term, the Calendar would have increased profitability from IV, the fact remains, that as we move towards expiration Friday in January 2010, the IV will continue to drop out of the trades, so the Calendar which is already at low IV may drop further and be materially damaged. However, the Butterflies fortunes should reverse as IV comes out of the trade the closer we get to expiration. Thus, the profitability of the Butterfly will improve.

Another point to keep in mind is that there is no volatility in a trade on expiration Friday, everything about the trade is know. So, I am banking on the Butterfly over the Calendar as we move through this Christmas and New Year period to have superior profitability.

Cheers

Monday, December 7, 2009

Getting to Yes ....


John Lennon first met Yoko Ono in 1966 at an avant garde art gallery in London called Indica. There was an exhibition with a ladder that led to a painting, which was hung on the ceiling. It looked like a white canvas with a chain with a spyglass hanging on the end of it.

Lennon climbed the ladder, looked through the spyglass, and in tiny little letters it said, YES.

This was such a positive message that Lennon described his reaction as one of "relief".

Although this incident took place well over fourty years ago, I find myself thinking about the message of relief behind the art quite often. Every day when we turn on the news channel, it seems that the overwhelming number of news items are about, how many people are killed in terrorist attacks, car accidents, shootings and other destructive acts.

It seems that if there are not enough of these types of stories from the murkier side of human nature, the media looks to the economy, the level of  unemployment, encroaching deflation, spiralling interest rates and how it will directly affect us all. Not only do they tell us about their worst fears, they continually remind us over and over every night, so the cycle of worry and anxiety feeds incessantly on itself.

Sensationalism often takes the place of balance reporting, and words such as alleged, reported, possible and so forth creep into the story line all too often when it is very obvious that the media is on weak ground and fishing around for something "meatier" than a more upbeat humane story or scientific discovery.


It seems to me that the combined impact of the global financial crisis on our personal lives, whether it be through the loss of a job, depleted savings, lower superannuation or the secondary impact on friends and relatives, the last thing we need is an over abundance of negatively slanted news in our lives.

Now I want to be very clear about what I mean here. I am not advocating that the media ignore the tragedies happening in the world, but more, a balance approach to news presentation. Instead of five out of six stories being negative, how about fifty fifty or better. In these difficult times we need to hear more about the positive side of life, society and the economy. Lets look to the future with a positive approach and not one of anxiety and despair. Facing reality in times of change is a challenge for all of us and we really do need the glass to be half full.

The bad times are over, if you really want them to be. .....



Cheers

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Trading in the time of shadows

Ever wondered about what sort of trader you are?. What your temperament for taking losses is?. When you were going to move from trading as a possibility to trading as a reality and way of life?.

I have pondered long and hard over many years and wondered about these questions, and the best reflection of my trading journey is much the same as my reflection on travelling through life's many shadowy and labyrinthine corridors.



Cheers